Countries Near Breaking Point

Mass migration, starvation, civil unrest _ overpopulation unites all of these. Many nations’ threadbare economies, unable to cope with soaring births, could produce even greater waves of refugees beyond the millions already on the move to neighbouring countries or the more prosperous havens of Europe. The population crisis is especially acute in Africa, but it spans the globe, from Central America to Asia.
Humanity has grown as expected since the warnings about global overpopulation of the 1960s. Decades of United Nations projections for the year 2000 came within 3 percent of the actual total, making the UN’s 9.7 billion prediction for 2050 both credible and alarming.
The Green Revolution and globalisation brought food and jobs to soaring populations. Those events, and the declining rate of global population growth, camouflage today’s situation: the rise in absolute numbers of people, with millions more at risk when things go awry. Thomas Malthus, the population theorist of the 18th and 19th centuries, predicted such calamities if the world’s population grew unchecked. 
Current growth adds the population equivalent of a new Iran or Germany every year. Fast-rising populations degrade economic and agricultural resiliency; add a recession or drought and the human consequences magnify. In many countries, the population of desperately impoverished has grown to far exceed their total population as of 1970. When conditions worsen, the numbers stricken are staggering, and Malthusian concerns come back with a vengeance.
Curbing poverty in some countries would require unheard of economic growth. Even maintaining the economic status quo, a very low bar, is beyond reach.
To illustrate the burdens of exploding populations, imagine these nations scaled up to the size of the United States, which generated, on average, 129,000 new jobs a month last year. Just to tread water — the dismal status quo — an America-size Tanzania would have to produce 636,000 jobs monthly, without cease.
Food systems in about two dozen countries are now stressed, or worse. Four nations — Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen — are at risk for famine this year. 
The world’s population will break through the 8 billion mark in 2023, there are more men than women, and next year the number of over 60s will top 1 billion for the first time, according to the latest findings and forecasts from the United Nations annual population survey.
More than half of the global population growth by 2050 will come from sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates will persist at levels far higher than in the rest of the world, the UN predictions released on June 21 show.
Half the growth in numbers of people will come from just nine countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the US, Uganda and Indonesia. By 2050 seven of the world’s 20 most populous nations will be African.
By contrast, all European countries now languish with fertility rates below replacement level, meaning that populations will inexorably decline without large-scale immigration.
“In some countries with low levels of fertility and ageing populations ... a net inflow of migrants has been the primary source of population growth and in some cases has averted a decline in population size,” noted John Wilmoth, director of the UN’s population division.
Eastern Europe is likely to be particularly badly affected by population trends, with numbers likely to fall more than 15 percent in Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine.
The UN study also found that there are more men than women globally (102 men for every 100 women), and that the number of people over 60 will top 1 billion in 2018 – and 2 billion by 2050. Children under 15 years make up about one quarter of the world’s inhabitants. The median age of the world’s population is 30. 

Sources: The Guardian, New York Times.

Countries Near Breaking Point

Mass migration, starvation, civil unrest _ overpopulation unites all of these. Many nations threadbare economies, unable to cope with soaring births, could produce even greater waves of refugees beyond the millions already on the move to neighbouring countries or the more prosperous havens of Europe. The population crisis is especially acute in Africa, but it spans the globe, from Central America to Asia. Humanity has grown as expected since the warnings about global overpopulation of the 1960s. Decades of United Nations projections for the year 2000 came within 3 percent of the actual total, making the UNs 9.7 billion prediction for 2050 both credible and alarming. The Green Revolution and globalisation brought food and jobs to soaring populations. Those events, and the declining rate of global population growth, camouflage todays situation: the rise in absolute numbers of people, with millions more at risk when things go awry. Thomas Malthus, the population theorist of the 18th and 19th centuries, predicted such calamities if the worlds population grew unchecked. Current growth adds the population equivalent of a new Iran or Germany every year. Fast-rising populations degrade economic and agricultural resiliency; add a recession or drought and the human consequences magnify. In many countries, the population of desperately impoverished has grown to far exceed their total population as of 1970. When conditions worsen, the numbers stricken are staggering, and Malthusian concerns come back with a vengeance. Curbing poverty in some countries would require unheard of economic growth. Even maintaining the economic status quo, a very low bar, is beyond reach. To illustrate the burdens of exploding populations, imagine these nations scaled up to the size of the United States, which generated, on average, 129,000 new jobs a month last year. Just to tread water the dismal status quo an America-size Tanzania would have to produce 636,000 jobs monthly, without cease. Food systems in about two dozen countries are now stressed, or worse. Four nations Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen are at risk for famine this year. The worlds population will break through the 8 billion mark in 2023, there are more men than women, and next year the number of over 60s will top 1 billion for the first time, according to the latest findings and forecasts from the United Nations annual population survey. More than half of the global population growth by 2050 will come from sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates will persist at levels far higher than in the rest of the world, the UN predictions released on June 21 show. Half the growth in numbers of people will come from just nine countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the US, Uganda and Indonesia. By 2050 seven of the worlds 20 most populous nations will be African. By contrast, all European countries now languish with fertility rates below replacement level, meaning that populations will inexorably decline without large-scale immigration. In some countries with low levels of fertility and ageing populations ... a net inflow of migrants has been the primary source of population growth and in some cases has averted a decline in population size, noted John Wilmoth, director of the UNs population division. Eastern Europe is likely to be particularly badly affected by population trends, with numbers likely to fall more than 15 percent in Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine. The UN study also found that there are more men than women globally (102 men for every 100 women), and that the number of people over 60 will top 1 billion in 2018 and 2 billion by 2050. Children under 15 years make up about one quarter of the worlds inhabitants. The median age of the worlds population is 30. Sources: The Guardian, New York Times.