Will Kashmir conflict escalate into a full war?

The best solution for Kashmir situation lies in a free and fair plebiscite. Under the UN's supervision both India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops from their respective sides of Kashmir and a free and fair plebiscite should take place

Again Kashmir has become the top world news. A serious clash occurred between India and Pakistan which might turn into a full-fledged war if both sides do not restrain themselves. At first a terrorist attack in the India-held Kashmir killed more than 40 soldiers of the Indian army. Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist organization who are based in Pakistan, claimed the responsibility for this attack. In a retaliatory air strike in Pakistan held Kashmir, India claimed that they have killed many terrorists but lost two fighter jets. Pakistan has shown the picture of one captured pilots and declared that they are ready to resist the Indian attack. Perhaps, this conflict is more dangerous than the last Kargil war.
During the Kargil war BJP was in power in India and Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime Minister. He was in a mood to remove the hostility between the two countries and went to Lahore in a bus ride to meet Nawaz Sharif, the-then Prime Minister of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif was also eager to make a deal with India to avoid a looming economic crisis. But the hard liners of Pakistan military, especially the-then head of the army, General Pervez Musahrraf was not happy to make a deal with India. He was even eager to seize the power by a military coup. He and his military junta conspired the Kargil war and the hostility between the two countries again reached the peak. This time the situation is more dangerous than Kargil.
BJP leader, Narendra Modi is going to face a general election next year. In the last election his personal charisma helped BJP to a landslide victory but his charisma is gradually fading and the oppositions have organized a major threat to him. He needs an escape route. On the other hand Pakistan's new Prime minister, Imran Khan is facing a great economic crisis. To divert the attention of his people from this reality he also needs something to agitate them. Kashmir issue is an easy weapon to agitate people for forgetting the economic crisis. Some political observers say that both leaders of India and Pakistan wanted to use the Kashmir issue again as a political weapon to survive their crises. This is a game that had been used by both the countries in the past.
When Pakistan's first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali khan faced great agitation in the-then East Pakistan for depriving its people from equal rights with West Pakistan and had a confrontation with people in a public gathering in the Paltan Maidan, Dhaka, he suddenly shouted 'Who wants to join the jihad in Kashmir?'  Immediately the public mood changed and their slogan for autonomy and equal rights changed into a war cry, 'Larke lenge Kashmir' (We will take Kashmir by fight). In India the same thing happened during BJP rule. Similarly, whenever they failed to fulfil their promises to people and faced a general election in India, they tried to manipulate the public sentiment by raising communal tension on the issue of cow-slaughtering or Kashmir.
This year is also a year of election preparation and if the two countries start a political ping pong match again that starts with Kashmir issue it will not be a surprise. But this match with a terrorist attack and an air strike is very dangerous. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. The danger is that if both the parties cannot keep their restraint then it may turn into a catalyst for unthinkable destruction. We are fortunate that both the countries are nuclear powers. They may cross their limit in the war of words but not using weapons. The world leaders have asked them to restrain themselves, but they failed to restore peace in Afghanistan and Syria. In the subcontinent our last hope rests on the wisdom of the politicians of both countries.
The British Raj wilfully or unwillfully created this Kashmir issue when they divided the subcontinent and gave it independence. The country was divided on the basis of religion but Lord Radcliffe kept the future of native states like Kashmir, Hyderabad, Junagarh undecided. By the principle of division Hyderabad, Junagarh would go to India and the hugely Muslim populated Kashmir would go to Pakistan. But the Kashmiris and their great leader Sheikh Abduallah were great secularists. They decided not to join Pakistan, a communal country but join India, a secular state with a special status which would provide absolute autonomy for Kashmir. This decision of Kashmiris angered the rulers of Pakistan including Jinnah and they sent troops to occupy Kashmir. Pakistani forces occupied a large part of Kashmir, which is now under Pakistan and known as Azad Kashmir. India sent forces to halt the Pakistani aggression and eventually Kashmir was divided.
I do not want to repeat the old story. First India went to the United Nations with a complaint against Pakistan for aggression in Kashmir. In the United Nations it was agreed that a plebiscite will be held in Kashmir and Kashmiris will be given an opportunity to decide their fate. In the meantime the undisputed leader of Kashmir Sheikh Abduallah, was removed from the post of Prime Minister and was put into jail by the Nehru government. The special status of Kashmir was abolished and it was made a state of India. Pakistan started sending armed guerrillas to Kashmir and there were several small wars between India and Pakistan. Eventually this problem entered into the east-west cold war and the possibility of a plebiscite was nipped in the bud.
This crisis is going on for the last 72 years. Thousands of people were tortured and killed. Terrorism swept in the Jammu and Kashmir valley and the people of divided Kashmir are suffering untold misery. Still I think that the present crisis may develop into a ground war, not in a nuclear conflict. Nuclear weapons in the hands of both sides are the best preventive in the present situation. The best solution for Kashmir situation lies in a free and fair plebiscite. Under the UN's supervision both India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops from their respective sides of Kashmir and a free and fair plebiscite should take place. To keep Kashmir issue afloat for a long time may cause a devastation not only for the subcontinent but the whole Asia.

London, Thursday 28 February, 2019

 

Will Kashmir conflict escalate into a full war?

The best solution for Kashmir situation lies in a free and fair plebiscite. Under the UNs supervision both India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops from their respective sides of Kashmir and a free and fair plebiscite should take place

Again Kashmir has become the top world news. A serious clash occurred between India and Pakistan which might turn into a full-fledged war if both sides do not restrain themselves. At first a terrorist attack in the India-held Kashmir killed more than 40 soldiers of the Indian army. Jaish-e-Mohammed, a terrorist organization who are based in Pakistan, claimed the responsibility for this attack. In a retaliatory air strike in Pakistan held Kashmir, India claimed that they have killed many terrorists but lost two fighter jets. Pakistan has shown the picture of one captured pilots and declared that they are ready to resist the Indian attack. Perhaps, this conflict is more dangerous than the last Kargil war. During the Kargil war BJP was in power in India and Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime Minister. He was in a mood to remove the hostility between the two countries and went to Lahore in a bus ride to meet Nawaz Sharif, the-then Prime Minister of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif was also eager to make a deal with India to avoid a looming economic crisis. But the hard liners of Pakistan military, especially the-then head of the army, General Pervez Musahrraf was not happy to make a deal with India. He was even eager to seize the power by a military coup. He and his military junta conspired the Kargil war and the hostility between the two countries again reached the peak. This time the situation is more dangerous than Kargil. BJP leader, Narendra Modi is going to face a general election next year. In the last election his personal charisma helped BJP to a landslide victory but his charisma is gradually fading and the oppositions have organized a major threat to him. He needs an escape route. On the other hand Pakistans new Prime minister, Imran Khan is facing a great economic crisis. To divert the attention of his people from this reality he also needs something to agitate them. Kashmir issue is an easy weapon to agitate people for forgetting the economic crisis. Some political observers say that both leaders of India and Pakistan wanted to use the Kashmir issue again as a political weapon to survive their crises. This is a game that had been used by both the countries in the past. When Pakistans first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali khan faced great agitation in the-then East Pakistan for depriving its people from equal rights with West Pakistan and had a confrontation with people in a public gathering in the Paltan Maidan, Dhaka, he suddenly shouted Who wants to join the jihad in Kashmir? Immediately the public mood changed and their slogan for autonomy and equal rights changed into a war cry, Larke lenge Kashmir (We will take Kashmir by fight). In India the same thing happened during BJP rule. Similarly, whenever they failed to fulfil their promises to people and faced a general election in India, they tried to manipulate the public sentiment by raising communal tension on the issue of cow-slaughtering or Kashmir. This year is also a year of election preparation and if the two countries start a political ping pong match again that starts with Kashmir issue it will not be a surprise. But this match with a terrorist attack and an air strike is very dangerous. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. The danger is that if both the parties cannot keep their restraint then it may turn into a catalyst for unthinkable destruction. We are fortunate that both the countries are nuclear powers. They may cross their limit in the war of words but not using weapons. The world leaders have asked them to restrain themselves, but they failed to restore peace in Afghanistan and Syria. In the subcontinent our last hope rests on the wisdom of the politicians of both countries. The British Raj wilfully or unwillfully created this Kashmir issue when they divided the subcontinent and gave it independence. The country was divided on the basis of religion but Lord Radcliffe kept the future of native states like Kashmir, Hyderabad, Junagarh undecided. By the principle of division Hyderabad, Junagarh would go to India and the hugely Muslim populated Kashmir would go to Pakistan. But the Kashmiris and their great leader Sheikh Abduallah were great secularists. They decided not to join Pakistan, a communal country but join India, a secular state with a special status which would provide absolute autonomy for Kashmir. This decision of Kashmiris angered the rulers of Pakistan including Jinnah and they sent troops to occupy Kashmir. Pakistani forces occupied a large part of Kashmir, which is now under Pakistan and known as Azad Kashmir. India sent forces to halt the Pakistani aggression and eventually Kashmir was divided. I do not want to repeat the old story. First India went to the United Nations with a complaint against Pakistan for aggression in Kashmir. In the United Nations it was agreed that a plebiscite will be held in Kashmir and Kashmiris will be given an opportunity to decide their fate. In the meantime the undisputed leader of Kashmir Sheikh Abduallah, was removed from the post of Prime Minister and was put into jail by the Nehru government. The special status of Kashmir was abolished and it was made a state of India. Pakistan started sending armed guerrillas to Kashmir and there were several small wars between India and Pakistan. Eventually this problem entered into the east-west cold war and the possibility of a plebiscite was nipped in the bud. This crisis is going on for the last 72 years. Thousands of people were tortured and killed. Terrorism swept in the Jammu and Kashmir valley and the people of divided Kashmir are suffering untold misery. Still I think that the present crisis may develop into a ground war, not in a nuclear conflict. Nuclear weapons in the hands of both sides are the best preventive in the present situation. The best solution for Kashmir situation lies in a free and fair plebiscite. Under the UNs supervision both India and Pakistan should withdraw their troops from their respective sides of Kashmir and a free and fair plebiscite should take place. To keep Kashmir issue afloat for a long time may cause a devastation not only for the subcontinent but the whole Asia. London, Thursday 28 February, 2019