Will Hassan Rouhani be Iran’s first single term president?

Fingers are being pointed at Rouhani from almost every direction. The blame has also been attributed to the technocrat team he chose who are mainly western-educated politicians, including Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarid

Iran’s presidential election will be held on May 19 and since 1981, every Iranian president has won re-election and each premier has served the maximum two consecutive terms permitted by the constitution. 

Nevertheless, doubts have been cast about whether Hassan Rouhani will be capable of pulling off a victory. Will he be Iran’s first one-term president? 
Fingers are being pointed at Rouhani from almost every direction. The blame has also been attributed to the technocrat team he chose who are mainly western-educated politicians, including Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarid.
One group in particular is more empowered and feels fully vindicated in pointing towards Mr Rouhani’s failures: the hardliners. The hardliners are mainly the judiciary system, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and its five forces, including the Quds Force and Basij, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Assembly of Experts and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme
Leader. 
Just last week, Iran’s supreme leader rebuked Mr Rouhani for failing to fulfil his promises on improving the economy. Mr Khamenei stated: "We receive complaints from people. ... People should feel improvements regarding creation of jobs and manufacturing. It is not the case now."
The timing of Mr Khamenei’s speech was intriguing as it came soon after the International Monetary Fund’s recently released report on Iran’s economy. The executive board of the IMF commended the Iranian authorities for "achieving an impressive recovery in economic growth after the lifting of nuclear sanctions in 2016.."
Mr Rouhani and his ministers provided statistics and figures, but Mr Khamenei did not appear fully satisfied with the efforts of the Rouhani government. He said that "presenting reports and figures is good but will not impact people’s lives in mid- and long-term." 
The senior cadre of the Revolutionary Guards has also become more unrestrained as they argue Mr Rouhani’s agenda of rapprochement with the United States and the West has failed. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the assembly of experts that selects Iran’s supreme leader, lashed out at Mr Rouhani’s failure to improve the economy as well. 
According to Fars News, he said that "if the resistance economy has not been followed in the way that it should and must have been, then [Rouhani] must apologise and tell them [Iranians] the reasons." When Iranians were asked in the 2016 survey to rate their satisfaction with the government's performance in each of these areas, their displeasure comes through quite clearly. Fifty-one per cent gave their government a passing grade for investing in improving the economy and creating employment – the only policy area to receive a passing grade. More than 70 per cent were dissatisfied with efforts to advance democracy and protect personal and civil rights. Hope for improvement in relations with the West and Arab neighbours also fared poorly, with 65 per cent of Iranians saying they were dissatisfied with the progress their government had made in improving relations with Arab governments and 85 per cent displeased with the efforts to improve ties with the US and the West.
The latest SBY poll also establishes that more than one half (53 per cent) of Iranians are dissatisfied that their government is still providing support for allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Because we have been polling since 2014 on the importance Iranians attach to each of these foreign involvements, comparing responses over that time period reveals a sharp decline in support for all of them.
In 2015, 90 per cent of Iranians saw it as important for their government to be involved in Syria. That dropped to 73 per cent in 2015 and only 24 per cent this year. In other words, over three-quarters of Iranians do not believe that it is important for their government to continue to be involved in Syria. The same disenchantment can be seen with declining support for involvement in other foreign countries. For involvement in Iraq it was 87 per cent in 2014, 64 per cent in 2015 and 47 per cent in 2016; in Lebanon it went from 88 per cent in 2014 to 43 per cent in 2016; and, for Yemen, from 62 per cent to 29 per cent.
It appears that while Iranians once took pride in the government’s aggressive foreign policy, they have grown war-weary and want new priorities.
Rouhani’s attempts to attract foreign investment on a large scale had not materialised.  Khamenei rebuked Mr Rouhani: "Attracting foreign investment is a positive measure but so far a very limited [number] of foreign contracts have materialised."
It is worth noting that Mr Khamenei is resorting to his classic tactic of wielding power while avoiding being held accountable at any cost. To accomplish his objective, Khamenei has always made sure that his presidents take the responsibility for economic or political failure. In addition, he has ensured that the president doesn't wield any actual power. 
Mr Rouhani did bring billions of dollars of extra revenues to Iran. But, the major reason that many people did not see the fruit of sanction reliefs or foreign contracts is that the beneficiaries of this additional cash were mostly the elite. Business deals were sealed at state level. The money did not trickle down to the people. 
America’s seemingly changing policy towards Iran is also not helping Mr Rouhani. Former US national security adviser, Michael Flynn, put Iran "on notice" after Iran test-fired a ballistic missile in apparent violation of a UN resolution. Iran argued that its ballistic missile is for defence purposes. Later, Iran testfired a pair of missiles and launched military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, where one third of the global oil traded by sea passes through. Last week, US officials said that an Iranian frigate strayed dangerously close to a US navy ship. 
Hardliners are capitalising on the heightened tensions between Iran and the US and hope to stop Rouhani from becoming president for another four years. 

The writer is an Iranian-American scholar and president of the International American Council on the Middle East

Most of Iran’s newspapers, which are owned by the hardliners, have also started a campaign to highlight Rouhani’s failures in domestic, foreign, and regional policies. 
Although it seems that criticisms are raining down on Rouhani from almost every hardliner or institution, we should not jump to the conclusion that Rouhani has completely lost the blessing of the supreme leader. Khamenei is still desperately in need of the moderate camp’s diplomatic skills in case Iran and the West faced a perilous geopolitical or economic situation. 

Will Hassan Rouhani be Irans first single term president?

Fingers are being pointed at Rouhani from almost every direction. The blame has also been attributed to the technocrat team he chose who are mainly western-educated politicians, including Irans foreign minister, Javad Zarid

Irans presidential election will be held on May 19 and since 1981, every Iranian president has won re-election and each premier has served the maximum two consecutive terms permitted by the constitution. Nevertheless, doubts have been cast about whether Hassan Rouhani will be capable of pulling off a victory. Will he be Irans first one-term president? Fingers are being pointed at Rouhani from almost every direction. The blame has also been attributed to the technocrat team he chose who are mainly western-educated politicians, including Irans foreign minister, Javad Zarid. One group in particular is more empowered and feels fully vindicated in pointing towards Mr Rouhanis failures: the hardliners. The hardliners are mainly the judiciary system, the Revolutionary Guard Corps and its five forces, including the Quds Force and Basij, the Ministry of Intelligence, the Assembly of Experts and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. Just last week, Irans supreme leader rebuked Mr Rouhani for failing to fulfil his promises on improving the economy. Mr Khamenei stated: We receive complaints from people. ... People should feel improvements regarding creation of jobs and manufacturing. It is not the case now. The timing of Mr Khameneis speech was intriguing as it came soon after the International Monetary Funds recently released report on Irans economy. The executive board of the IMF commended the Iranian authorities for achieving an impressive recovery in economic growth after the lifting of nuclear sanctions in 2016.. Mr Rouhani and his ministers provided statistics and figures, but Mr Khamenei did not appear fully satisfied with the efforts of the Rouhani government. He said that presenting reports and figures is good but will not impact peoples lives in mid- and long-term. The senior cadre of the Revolutionary Guards has also become more unrestrained as they argue Mr Rouhanis agenda of rapprochement with the United States and the West has failed. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the assembly of experts that selects Irans supreme leader, lashed out at Mr Rouhanis failure to improve the economy as well. According to Fars News, he said that if the resistance economy has not been followed in the way that it should and must have been, then [Rouhani] must apologise and tell them [Iranians] the reasons. When Iranians were asked in the 2016 survey to rate their satisfaction with the governments performance in each of these areas, their displeasure comes through quite clearly. Fifty-one per cent gave their government a passing grade for investing in improving the economy and creating employment the only policy area to receive a passing grade. More than 70 per cent were dissatisfied with efforts to advance democracy and protect personal and civil rights. Hope for improvement in relations with the West and Arab neighbours also fared poorly, with 65 per cent of Iranians saying they were dissatisfied with the progress their government had made in improving relations with Arab governments and 85 per cent displeased with the efforts to improve ties with the US and the West. The latest SBY poll also establishes that more than one half (53 per cent) of Iranians are dissatisfied that their government is still providing support for allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Because we have been polling since 2014 on the importance Iranians attach to each of these foreign involvements, comparing responses over that time period reveals a sharp decline in support for all of them. In 2015, 90 per cent of Iranians saw it as important for their government to be involved in Syria. That dropped to 73 per cent in 2015 and only 24 per cent this year. In other words, over three-quarters of Iranians do not believe that it is important for their government to continue to be involved in Syria. The same disenchantment can be seen with declining support for involvement in other foreign countries. For involvement in Iraq it was 87 per cent in 2014, 64 per cent in 2015 and 47 per cent in 2016; in Lebanon it went from 88 per cent in 2014 to 43 per cent in 2016; and, for Yemen, from 62 per cent to 29 per cent. It appears that while Iranians once took pride in the governments aggressive foreign policy, they have grown war-weary and want new priorities. Rouhanis attempts to attract foreign investment on a large scale had not materialised. Khamenei rebuked Mr Rouhani: Attracting foreign investment is a positive measure but so far a very limited [number] of foreign contracts have materialised. It is worth noting that Mr Khamenei is resorting to his classic tactic of wielding power while avoiding being held accountable at any cost. To accomplish his objective, Khamenei has always made sure that his presidents take the responsibility for economic or political failure. In addition, he has ensured that the president doesnt wield any actual power. Mr Rouhani did bring billions of dollars of extra revenues to Iran. But, the major reason that many people did not see the fruit of sanction reliefs or foreign contracts is that the beneficiaries of this additional cash were mostly the elite. Business deals were sealed at state level. The money did not trickle down to the people. Americas seemingly changing policy towards Iran is also not helping Mr Rouhani. Former US national security adviser, Michael Flynn, put Iran on notice after Iran test-fired a ballistic missile in apparent violation of a UN resolution. Iran argued that its ballistic missile is for defence purposes. Later, Iran testfired a pair of missiles and launched military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, where one third of the global oil traded by sea passes through. Last week, US officials said that an Iranian frigate strayed dangerously close to a US navy ship. Hardliners are capitalising on the heightened tensions between Iran and the US and hope to stop Rouhani from becoming president for another four years. The writer is an Iranian-American scholar and president of the International American Council on the Middle East Most of Irans newspapers, which are owned by the hardliners, have also started a campaign to highlight Rouhanis failures in domestic, foreign, and regional policies. Although it seems that criticisms are raining down on Rouhani from almost every hardliner or institution, we should not jump to the conclusion that Rouhani has completely lost the blessing of the supreme leader. Khamenei is still desperately in need of the moderate camps diplomatic skills in case Iran and the West faced a perilous geopolitical or economic situation.