The staying power of Thailand’s military

The ruling junta is likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future

Thailand is currently under the strictest military regime the country has seen since the early 1970s, an era when China-backed communist guerrillas threatened to overthrow the established monarchy-military symbiotic order. Despite rising controversy surrounding the current National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) junta’s heavy-handed rule, it’s a military regime that will likely remain in power for the foreseeable future.
To understand the present and project into the future, it’s important to understand Thailand’s recent past. The 2014 military coup marked the crescendo of anti-government street convulsions, staged initially against an amnesty bill that would have paved the way for the criminally convicted self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to Thailand a free man under his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra’s elected government.
Those protests later morphed into broad, if not vague, calls for cleaner governance, an end to corruption and an overhaul of democratic politics. The street protest-enabled coup, rather than an answer to a popular reform call, was clearly orchestrated by royalist elites to ensure that top generals, rather than squabbling politicians, are in control at the time of what many view will be a delicate royal succession.
Since seizing power, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s junta has advanced reform rhetoric while simultaneously consolidating a strong and increasingly efficient police state bent on ferreting out and squashing dissent. Crackdowns on journalists and activists have become progressively more severe, including the recent commando-style abduction and physical beating in an open field of an anti-junta student activist. It has also ramped up punitive anti-royal charges against both critics of the crown and anti-military opponents. The vow to restore democratic governance and hold new elections is and remains a sop to Western governments, namely the European Union and the United States, as well as certain local middle class constituencies who support the country’s long and painful struggle for democracy over military-led authoritarianism. The junta’s time table for new polls has been progressively pushed back, first promised for late 2015, then mid-2016 and now mid to late 2017.
That’s based on the assumption a new draft constitution passes a July referendum, which seems unlikely given reports that it, like a previous scrapped version, includes various controversial provisions that aim to uphold the military’s overarching political role. It’s not altogether clear what will happen if the charter is voted down, though it would almost certainly further attenuate the junta’s hold on power beyond 2017.
Rather than a near term democratic transition, Thai politics will more likely be steered by the military for the foreseeable future. Thailand has arguably already entered an end-of-reign new political order, where the military, rather than a democratic government, has begun to fill the inevitable power vacuum that will open at the end of the current king’s long and storied reign and the crowning of a new, inevitably less influential, heir.
Who wears that crown, however, is not a complete given. How a contest between competing royalist camps plays out in the weeks and months ahead could have significant implications for stability.
Even with a calm and predictable succession, it is expected that the military government will invoke martial law to enforce an extended period of national mourning until the transition is deemed as safe and secure.
If there is any hint of turmoil around that process, either from a competing royalist or oppositional camp, the military leaders now in charge will likely jettison their self-professed commitment to restoring democracy and hunker down for an even longer stay. Only when the succession is considered settled and the monarchy upheld will the country begin to move back towards some type of, most likely highly circumscribed, democratic order.
Consolidation
Many observers were taken aback by how easily the military consolidated its power in light of the political saber-rattling that preceded the 2014 coup. Unlike the 2006 military coup that ousted Thaksin’s elected government, characterized by commentators at the time as “smooth as silk,” Prayut’s putsch has employed especially hard tactics to consolidate its control.
Civil liberties have been sharply curbed, political opponents have been threatened and harassed, the press intimidated and censored, and the general population given strict marching orders to think only happy thoughts. Those measures were initially employed to counter the threat that Thaksin’s allies might mount an insurgent response to the coup, but as that threat fades its clear the junta has no intention of lightening its grip.
    The Diplomat

Thaksin’s allies had threatened civil war if Yingluck’s government was overthrown in a democracy-suspending coup. There were news reports at the time citing Thaksin’s “Red Shirt” protest group members saying that their stronghold northern and northeastern regions would secede from the kingdom if Yingluck was ousted through extra-legal means. Yingluck disassociated herself from the threats at the time, while the military sought harsh repercussions against the vocal activists.
None of those civil war threats, however, even remotely came to fruition after the coup. The military’s threat to seize the well-investigated personal assets of key Red Shirt leaders if they agitated has proven highly effective in muzzling and neutralizing their criticism and resistance. More hard-knuckled tactics, including intrusive surveillance and strongly enforced bans on political gatherings, have been deployed to suppress possible organization and unrest in the provinces.
Those tough tactics have underpinned the stability that has defined Prayut’s military rule. There has been barely a peep of street level resistance to the coup in Bangkok, and arguably less so in the provinces, despite the rolling back of civil liberties and heavy-handed rule. But the calm has been achieved largely through intimidation, not genuine reconciliation – a notion that the junta’s spin machine has bid to perpetuate through its North Korean-like “returning happiness to the people” mantras spread nightly over state media.
At the same time, former army commander and now prime minister Prayut has seemed to grow increasingly comfortable in his political role. While his off-the-cuff and often impolitic comments are often portrayed critically in the press, his tough talking, straight-shooting manner has given him a certain populist appeal at the grass roots, similar in respects to the cowboy antics Thaksin leveraged to win and maintain popular support.
Accommodation
Has post-coup stability held more due to military suppression or Thaksin’s inaction? It now seems clear to many diplomats and analysts that a certain accommodation between Thaksin and the military was put in place at the time of the coup where Thaksin’s personal and family interests have been left unmolested in exchange for him unplugging his political machine, including his withholding support for earlier calls among his political allies to establish an exile government.
Anti-government street protesters that helped to topple Yingluck had often bayed from their protest stages for an uprooting and expulsion of Thaksin and his family clan’s influence and interests. That has happened to a degree in the bureaucracy and state enterprises, and increasingly through what some view as a politicized anti-corruption campaign targeting the former premier’s power base in the police, but Thaksin’s personal assets and his family’s businesses have been left largely untouched since the coup.
His son’s Bangkok-based Voice TV news station, while under the same strict censorship guidelines of other private stations, has not been singled out for harassment despite a sometimes critical edge. The Shinawatra family-run property concern SC Asset, where Thaksin’s son-in-law serves as a top executive, has been allowed to roll out its new high-end properties unimpeded without politicized probes of its land bank acquisitions and finances.

The staying power of Thailand’s military

The ruling junta is likely to remain in power for the foreseeable future

Thailand is currently under the strictest military regime the country has seen since the early 1970s, an era when China-backed communist guerrillas threatened to overthrow the established monarchy-military symbiotic order. Despite rising controversy surrounding the current National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) juntas heavy-handed rule, its a military regime that will likely remain in power for the foreseeable future. To understand the present and project into the future, its important to understand Thailands recent past. The 2014 military coup marked the crescendo of anti-government street convulsions, staged initially against an amnesty bill that would have paved the way for the criminally convicted self-exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to Thailand a free man under his younger sister Yingluck Shinawatras elected government. Those protests later morphed into broad, if not vague, calls for cleaner governance, an end to corruption and an overhaul of democratic politics. The street protest-enabled coup, rather than an answer to a popular reform call, was clearly orchestrated by royalist elites to ensure that top generals, rather than squabbling politicians, are in control at the time of what many view will be a delicate royal succession. Since seizing power, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-chas junta has advanced reform rhetoric while simultaneously consolidating a strong and increasingly efficient police state bent on ferreting out and squashing dissent. Crackdowns on journalists and activists have become progressively more severe, including the recent commando-style abduction and physical beating in an open field of an anti-junta student activist. It has also ramped up punitive anti-royal charges against both critics of the crown and anti-military opponents. The vow to restore democratic governance and hold new elections is and remains a sop to Western governments, namely the European Union and the United States, as well as certain local middle class constituencies who support the countrys long and painful struggle for democracy over military-led authoritarianism. The juntas time table for new polls has been progressively pushed back, first promised for late 2015, then mid-2016 and now mid to late 2017. Thats based on the assumption a new draft constitution passes a July referendum, which seems unlikely given reports that it, like a previous scrapped version, includes various controversial provisions that aim to uphold the militarys overarching political role. Its not altogether clear what will happen if the charter is voted down, though it would almost certainly further attenuate the juntas hold on power beyond 2017. Rather than a near term democratic transition, Thai politics will more likely be steered by the military for the foreseeable future. Thailand has arguably already entered an end-of-reign new political order, where the military, rather than a democratic government, has begun to fill the inevitable power vacuum that will open at the end of the current kings long and storied reign and the crowning of a new, inevitably less influential, heir. Who wears that crown, however, is not a complete given. How a contest between competing royalist camps plays out in the weeks and months ahead could have significant implications for stability. Even with a calm and predictable succession, it is expected that the military government will invoke martial law to enforce an extended period of national mourning until the transition is deemed as safe and secure. If there is any hint of turmoil around that process, either from a competing royalist or oppositional camp, the military leaders now in charge will likely jettison their self-professed commitment to restoring democracy and hunker down for an even longer stay. Only when the succession is considered settled and the monarchy upheld will the country begin to move back towards some type of, most likely highly circumscribed, democratic order. Consolidation Many observers were taken aback by how easily the military consolidated its power in light of the political saber-rattling that preceded the 2014 coup. Unlike the 2006 military coup that ousted Thaksins elected government, characterized by commentators at the time as smooth as silk, Prayuts putsch has employed especially hard tactics to consolidate its control. Civil liberties have been sharply curbed, political opponents have been threatened and harassed, the press intimidated and censored, and the general population given strict marching orders to think only happy thoughts. Those measures were initially employed to counter the threat that Thaksins allies might mount an insurgent response to the coup, but as that threat fades its clear the junta has no intention of lightening its grip. The Diplomat Thaksins allies had threatened civil war if Yinglucks government was overthrown in a democracy-suspending coup. There were news reports at the time citing Thaksins Red Shirt protest group members saying that their stronghold northern and northeastern regions would secede from the kingdom if Yingluck was ousted through extra-legal means. Yingluck disassociated herself from the threats at the time, while the military sought harsh repercussions against the vocal activists. None of those civil war threats, however, even remotely came to fruition after the coup. The militarys threat to seize the well-investigated personal assets of key Red Shirt leaders if they agitated has proven highly effective in muzzling and neutralizing their criticism and resistance. More hard-knuckled tactics, including intrusive surveillance and strongly enforced bans on political gatherings, have been deployed to suppress possible organization and unrest in the provinces. Those tough tactics have underpinned the stability that has defined Prayuts military rule. There has been barely a peep of street level resistance to the coup in Bangkok, and arguably less so in the provinces, despite the rolling back of civil liberties and heavy-handed rule. But the calm has been achieved largely through intimidation, not genuine reconciliation a notion that the juntas spin machine has bid to perpetuate through its North Korean-like returning happiness to the people mantras spread nightly over state media. At the same time, former army commander and now prime minister Prayut has seemed to grow increasingly comfortable in his political role. While his off-the-cuff and often impolitic comments are often portrayed critically in the press, his tough talking, straight-shooting manner has given him a certain populist appeal at the grass roots, similar in respects to the cowboy antics Thaksin leveraged to win and maintain popular support. Accommodation Has post-coup stability held more due to military suppression or Thaksins inaction? It now seems clear to many diplomats and analysts that a certain accommodation between Thaksin and the military was put in place at the time of the coup where Thaksins personal and family interests have been left unmolested in exchange for him unplugging his political machine, including his withholding support for earlier calls among his political allies to establish an exile government. Anti-government street protesters that helped to topple Yingluck had often bayed from their protest stages for an uprooting and expulsion of Thaksin and his family clans influence and interests. That has happened to a degree in the bureaucracy and state enterprises, and increasingly through what some view as a politicized anti-corruption campaign targeting the former premiers power base in the police, but Thaksins personal assets and his familys businesses have been left largely untouched since the coup. His sons Bangkok-based Voice TV news station, while under the same strict censorship guidelines of other private stations, has not been singled out for harassment despite a sometimes critical edge. The Shinawatra family-run property concern SC Asset, where Thaksins son-in-law serves as a top executive, has been allowed to roll out its new high-end properties unimpeded without politicized probes of its land bank acquisitions and finances.